Foreign Exchange

GBP Foreign Exchange Rate Forecast Today 24th April 2009

Thursday’s Foreign Exchange movements:

GBP / EUR +0.48%
GBP / USD +0.98%
GBP / AUD +0.20%
GBP / NZD +0.33%

Sterling’s dramatic fall in Budget Wednesday were repeated yesterday morning, however the pound did stabilise against the majors towards the end of the day and begun to claw back some of the previous 36 hours losses.
GBP/EUR

After losing nearly 3 cents against the Euro throughout this week’s trading, the pound managed to recover part of these losses yesterday.  It is widely believed the adverse reaction to Alistair Darlings budget on Wednesday was the main cause of the fall, many calling it an overreaction.

Another contributing factor will have been the announcement from Germany’s leading economic think tank, claiming that the German economy will shrink by as much 6% throughout 2009, and that the unemployment rate will reach 10.8% next year. This would make Germany the fastest contracting economy in the world next to Japan.
“Through 2009 we anticipate a loss of more than 1 million jobs… and in the autumn unemployment will be well over the 4 million mark,” the think tanks said.

As Germany is one the largest economies within the Euro-zone, news such as this can have a detrimental effect on its currency and Foreign Exchange throughout the Union.

GBP/USD

As with the Euro and most other major currencies, the pound also made a small recovery after the previous losses. This recovery was aided further against the greenback following a US data release yesterday afternoon.
The number of US workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by a slightly more than forecast 27,000. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased to 640,000 from a previous 613,000. Considering analysts were expecting just a 17,000 increase, this lead to a weaker dollar in the afternoons trading.
In such volatile markets it is imperative as ever to ensure that you are in a good position to act quickly on any favourable spikes, in order to maximise your currency transfer. 
Forecasts for Todays trading

Following a particularly turbulent week for the pound, today’s trading will offer a few more hurdles to jump before the weekend sets in. This morning sees two significant data releases for the UK economy at 9:30am.
The first of these is UK GDP which will confirm exactly how deep the UK recession really is. Alistair Darling admitted on Wednesday that the UK is likely to contract by 3.5% this year, some 0.6% less than the prediction by the IMF (International Monetary Fund). The forecast for this morning’s year on year figure is for a contraction of 3.8%, and if this is confirmed there is every chance that the pound’s value could suffer further.

At the same time we will also see the release of the UK Retail Sales data. This indicator of consumer spending is shown as a percentage increase or decrease from the previous month or year. Analysts forecasts are rather more optimistic for this month with expectation of over 1% increase from previous. Again if these optimistic forecasts are not met, we could see further volatility in Sterling exchange rates.

If you have an immediate requirement for foreign currency, and do not wish to take the risk of the effect this data may have on your purchase, ensure you make early contact with your account manager. If you have any foreign currency to convert back into Sterling then ensure your account manager is informed so that we can help you to take advantage of any favourable spikes that today may offer.

Our currency exchange services provide a professional, efficient and cost-effective method for currency conversion. Our very personal service is suited to business users, needing to buy forex at the best currency exchange rates available, and for the private clients who wish to make a single money transfer, or regular payments such as overseas pension transfers. Call FX-Foreign  Exchange now on +44 (0) 1480.458400 .