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Archive for April, 2009

Post Budget Report

Posted by admin On April - 23 - 2009

Alistair Darling has said the UK will have to borrow a record £175bn as he admitted the economy faces its worst year since the Second World War.

The chancellor tore up a key New Labour election pledge by unveiling a new 50p tax rate for earnings over £150,000.

He also cut future spending plans in a Budget which added 2p on fuel, 1p on a pint of beer and 7p on cigarettes.

The package would steer the UK through to recovery, he said. The Tories said the economy was in an “utter mess”.

Leader David Cameron said not enough had been done to get spending under control and “Britain simply cannot afford another five years of Labour”.

KEY POINTS

  • 50% tax rate for earnings over £150,000
  • Big debt and deficit increases
  • Economy shrinks at record rate
  • Public spending squeeze planned
  • Books not balanced until 2018
  • 2p on fuel, 1p on a pint of beer and 7p on cigarettes
  • £15bn public sector ‘efficiency savings’
  • Claw back tax relief on top earners’ pension
  • £2bn help for young unemployed
  • £1bn to boost housing market
  • £2,000 car scrappage scheme

Total government debt will double to 79% of GDP by 2013 - the highest level since the Second World War. The annual budget deficit will rise sharply to £175bn for the next two years.

The Budget received a cool reception in the City with the pound down - and the Confederation of British Industry said it did not set out a “credible and rigorous” path to recovery.

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said the government “have condemned us to years of unemployment and decades of debt” and claimed Labour had been “desperately rushing around picking up half-baked ideas to save the skin of this failing government”.

The new top rate of tax is a change of plan from the pre-Budget report last year in which Mr Darling had proposed a new tax rate of 45%.

It is also being brought in a year earlier than planned “to pay for additional support for people now”.

Mr Darling also scrapped tax relief on top earners’ pensions.

BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson said Labour had ditched its manifesto pledge not to raise income tax before the next election in an effort to “wrongfoot” its opponents and cheer its core supporters, as well as raising money.

In other Budget measures, fuel duty will increase by 2p per litre in September and then by 1p a litre above inflation each April for the next four years.

BUDGET 2009

Alcohol duties will go up by 2% - about 4p on a bottle of wine and 13p on a bottle of spirits - from midnight.

Mr Darling said the various tax raising measures would raise more than £6bn by 2012.

That would help pay for a real terms boost in pensioners’ income - including new pension recognition for grandparents who care for their grandchildren - and help for savers with ISAs.

There will also be a “car scrappage” scheme under which people trading in cars older than 10 years for new ones will get £2,000 to boost the ailing motor industry.

Jobs

And there will be more help to get people back into work quickly and support businesses and homeowners facing problems.

Everyone under the age of 25 out of work for 12 months or more will be offered a job or a place on a training scheme. In addition, the government will create or support up to 250,000 jobs in deprived areas.
Find out the key words used by Alistair Darling in his Budget speech.

Another widely trailed measure confirmed was the extension of the Stamp Duty holiday on properties sold for less than £175,000 until the end of the year as part of a £1bn package aimed at boosting house sales and building.

In his speech, Mr Darling confirmed the economy would shrink by 3.5% in 2009 - far worse than his pre-Budget forecasts.

Public borrowing will also soar to record levels as the Treasury wrestles with a combination of falling tax receipts, higher spending and the cost of bank bail-outs.

But Mr Darling insisted other major countries were suffering a worse downturn.

Spending squeeze

He said the Budget would “build on the strength of the British economy”.

The government had been “guided by our core values of fairness and opportunity - and our determination to invest and grow our way out of recession”.

But he also made clear his recovery plans depended on a rapid economic bounce-back - with a forecast of 1.25% growth next year rising to 3.5% in 2011.

The Treasury will also bid to close the gap between dwindling tax receipts and soaring spending by selling £220bn in gilts, or government-backed debt - a new record.

BUDGET FORECASTS

  • Growth - Minus 3.5% in 2009, rising to 1.25% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011
  • Debt - Doubles to 79% of GDP by 2013
  • Deficit - Rises to £175bn for two years before falling to £97bn in 2013/14

And he admitted that the economy would first face a period of deepening deflation with the Retail Price Index falling to a low of minus 3% by September.

The chancellor is also squeezing public spending in the future by saying it will grow by only 0.7% per year from 2011 - a lower growth rate than when Mrs Thatcher was in power.

Despite this the public finances will only balance by 2018 - two years later than previously forecast.

There was also grim news on the jobs front ahead of the Budget, with unemployment figures showing the number of people looking for work has reached 2.1 million - its highest level since Labour came to power in 1997.

The government claimed Scotland would get an extra £104m from the Budget but the SNP said it would mean “a real terms cut in Scottish spending” of £500m that would cost 9,000 jobs.

The Welsh Assembly Government says it is facing a cut of more than £400m in its funding for next year. Opposition parties have called it “a huge blow” and warned that it will have have a major impact on frontline services.

Latest Financial Market Report

Posted by admin On April - 23 - 2009

GBP Foreign Exchange Rate Forecast Today 23rd April 2009

Budget
The Budget out yesterday was one of the worst on record for the Labour party. Alistair Darling claimed he is trying to save the public finances by announcing larger than expected borrowing of £175bn. He also announced that the UK economy is expected to shrink b y 3.5% - the worst since WW2 but said he expected it to pick up by the end of the year. David Cameron said however ‘Britain cannot afford another five years of Labour.’ Indeed, only fifteen minutes into the report Sterling dropped by over 1% against both Euro and US Dollar.

Public Borrowing
Public borrowing will also touch record levels as the Treasury tries to combat falling tax receipts, higher spending and the mounting cost of banking bail-outs. Further adding to the government’s woes is the problems of the Retail Price Index which on Tuesday hit the lowest rate since 1960 at -0.4%. Darling went on further to say he expects the UK economy to deflate to a low of minus 3% by September. With inflation on a downwards trend it allows the Bank of England to cut interest rates further if required, which could also have a negative impact on the value of Sterling.

Unemployment Report
Unemployment figures released yesterday morning prior to the Budget showed that the number of people searching for work has recently hit 2.1 million, the highest level since Labour took power in 1997. There are four points to the currency compass which affect exchange rates-two of the main parts being political and economic factors. So if we review the current state of both the economic and political climate in the UK things do not look good.

According to Darling ‘no country could insulate itself from the world downturn,’ yet the IMF predict borrowing from UK GDP will hit 12% both this year and next. GDP in the second highest country in Europe is currently France at 6.3%. The world leader is borrowing is the US, at around 13% of GDP but the IMF predicts that the UK in 2010 will be the biggest among the G20.
Therefore, many clients who have been looking for the ‘green shoots’ to send the Pound back to levels of this time last year may have to wait a lot longer for the Pound to recover.

Bank of England Minutes
The Bank of England yesterday announced that the vote was unanimous at 9-0 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold. Indeed, the vote in favour of freezing rates at their historic low of 0.5% was largely expected by economists. Howard Archer of Global Insight said ‘The
minutes suggest that the MPC is maintaining an open mind on whether or not its quantitative easing programme is sufficient or whether it will need to be extended or even reduced.’ My personal belief is that things could get a lot worse before they recover.

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Todays Foreign Exchange Rates

Posted by admin On April - 23 - 2009

 

Currency Code GBP/1 Unit Units/1 GBP
Utd. Arab Emir. Dirham AED 0.1867 5.3603
Australian Dollar AUD 0.4846 2.0648
Brazilian Real BRL 0.3095 3.2441
Canadian Dollar CAD 0.5535 1.8078
Swiss Franc CHF 0.5875 1.7028
Egyptian Pound EGP 0.1224 8.2842
Euro EUR 0.8883 1.1261
Hong Kong Dollar HKD 0.08846 11.3082
Indian Rupee INR 0.01355 74.1338
Japanese Yen JPY 0.00698 143.33
Polish Zloty PLN 0.2019 4.9626
Russian Rouble RUB 0.02024 49.7245
Thai Baht THB 0.01935 52.0617
US Dollar USD 0.6855 1.4591
East Caribbean Dollar XCD 0.2617 3.9701
South African Rand ZAR 0.07654 13.0955

Base currency GBP, United Kingdon GB Pounds, GB£, GBL on 23rd April, 2009

How does the 2009 budget effect exchange rates

Posted by admin On April - 22 - 2009

Sterling tumbles as UK govt projects big public debt, tax rise

Chancellor Alistair Darling says competitive fx rate is helping exporters

The Pound hits a 3-week low of $1.4440 = GBP1.00

Sterling tumbled to a three-week low against the dollar on Wednesday after the UK government projected a massive increase in public debt and said it would increase taxes as it unveiled its budget.

The pound was also weighed down as British finance minister Alistair Darling said a competitive exchange rate would help exporters.

The UK currency came under pressure as concerns mounted over Britain’s ability to service its debt as it tackles the worst economic downturn in more than 60 years.

Growth projections were largely in line with expectations

“The currency would have been affected by the overall projections, not just growth, but the public deficit ones as well, which are quite staggering in terms of the scale of the borrowing,” said Geraldine Concagh, economist with AIB Group in Dublin. ”I think it creates something of a negative backdrop for sterling relative to what we’ve seen over the last week or two.”

Darling said net public sector debt including bank interventions would increase from 59 percent of gross domestic product this year to 68 percent next year.

“The debt-to-GBP ratio is on the high side,” said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS in London, adding that this was putting selling pressure on sterling.

A new income tax rate of 50 pct from April on higher earners was also slamming the currency, he said.

“These taxes are a worrying sign. People will wonder if the UK is a viable destination, given high tax rates.”

Sterling fell to $1.4440 against the pound its lowest since early April. By 1238 GMT, it was down 1.3 percent on the day at $1.4477.

The euro was up 1.5 percent 89.66 pence <EURGBP=>, on track for its biggest rise in a month.

Britain will issue 220 billion pounds ($320.5 billion) of government bonds in the 2009/10 fiscal year, the Debt Management Office said, well above the 147.9 billion it estimated last month and higher than market forecasts of 180 billion pounds.